Last week the Northfields team were lucky to have a meeting with Mr Roger Martin-Fagg, a leading behavioural economist, who gave us his predictions for the property industry in 2020. Roger is very rarely wrong in his predictions, calling almost every General Election over the past 25 years and that is why we feel incredibly excited for the coming year:-
The key to continued expansion is how the UK Government chooses to manage its relations with the EU.
If there is a cabinet reshufﬂe during which members of the ERG are demoted it will be a clear sign that Boris wants a soft Brexit. He will need this if he is to deliver his promise to the North. If we continue to match EU standards, recognise how important the EU market for services exports and promise to regulate ﬁnancial services at EU standards then I anticipate a free trade deal on goods will be struck within 18 months and for our ﬁnancial services sector equivalence will be granted. In most respects, this will be business as usual.
However, if there is a move towards creating ‘Singapore on Thames’ and a pivot to the USA then the Boris Bounce will deﬂate by the end of next year. My instinct is this will not happen. For example, the race to the bottom on Corporation Tax will not happen. Hopefully, the ERG will become a knitting club in the House of Commons and fade into oblivion.
The February or March budget will give some clear messages of the intended path which I expect to be old fashioned one nation Toryism which is deﬁned as paternalistic approach recognising that society develops organically and Government should support change but not engineer it.
Roger Martin-Fagg is a behavioural economist who focuses on behaviour and feedback loops which are largely absent from conventional models.
Roger is an independent teaching consultant. He has been external examiner to Bath University, worked with the Bank of England, three of the major UK clearing banks, advised a major London recording studio for 15 years, and regularly talks to SME owners in the UK and Europe about economic trends. He is a visiting fellow to Ashridge, Warwick and Henley business schools.
Roger is a practical researcher. He focuses on how the economy really works and on the links between FT100 reward systems, the behaviour of banks and economic instability. He also researches his clients trading environment as a necessary component of his teaching. His book “Making Sense of the Economy” is in its fourth reprint. He speaks at conferences around the world on the economic outlook and its impact on business. His quarterly Economic Update is sent to 1,200 SMEs.
If you would like any more information on Roger’s predictions for 2020 and 2021 please contact Richard Palfreeman on [email protected]